基于支持向量机的发/输电系统快速蒙特卡洛可靠性评估方法

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019155

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

提出了一种基于支持向量机的发/输电系统快速蒙特卡洛可靠性评估方法。首先，遍历系统所有元件的故障并计算相应的最小切负荷量，得到用于训练机器学习模型的样本数据。然后，采用支持向量机作为挖掘系统元件故障与最小切负荷之间非线性映射关系的机器学习算法，训练得到不同故障下最小切负荷的估计模型。最后，将该模型与蒙特卡洛模拟法结合，随机采样元件状态，针对每个状态，由训练得到的估计模型直接给出最小切负荷量，从而实现发/输电系统可靠性的快速评估。将所提方法应用于发输电系统可靠性标准测试算例IEEE RTS 79，验证了其有效性和准确性。

关键词: 支持向量机, 快速蒙特卡洛模拟法, 可靠性评估, 发/输电系统

Abstract:

A fast Monte Carlo reliability evaluation method for composite power system based on support vector machine (SVM) was proposesd.Firstly,sample data for training the SVM model was obtained by enumerating component failures and calculating the corresponding minimum load shedding.Then,the SVM algorithm was used to mine the nonlinear mapping relationship between component failures and minimum load shedding,and the minimum load shedding estimation model was trained.Finally,the model was combined with the Monte Carlo simulation.By randomly sampling component states,for each state,the estimation model obtained by the training directly gave the minimum load shedding,thereby achieving a rapid assessment of the reliability of the composite power system.The proposed method is applied to the IEEE RTS 79 system,which verifies its effectiveness.

Key words: support vector machine, fast Monte Carlo simulation, reliability evaluation, composite power system

中图分类号:

TM712

雷宇骁,李更丰,黄玉雄,别朝红. 基于支持向量机的发/输电系统快速蒙特卡洛可靠性评估方法[J]. 电信科学, 2019, 35(6): 15-24.

LEI Yuxiao,LI Gengfeng,HUANG Yuxiong,BIE Zhaohong. Support vector machine based fast Monte Carlo reliability evaluation method for composite power system[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2019, 35(6): 15-24.

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故障线路编号Ⅰ	故障线路编号Ⅱ	切负荷量/MW	故障线路编号Ⅰ	故障线路编号Ⅱ	切负荷量/MW	故障线路编号Ⅰ	故障线路编号Ⅱ	切负荷量/MW
1	5	0.00	5	35	0.00	5	22	4.01
1	27	0.00	5	36	0.00	25	27	0.00
2	5	0.00	5	37	0.00	5	23	3.73
2	7	19.51	5	38	0.00	5	24	2.32
2	27	50.05	7	9	0.00	5	25	3.08
3	5	0.00	7	13	0.00	5	26	1.04
3	27	0.00	7	14	0.00	5	27	11.83
4	5	0.00	7	15	0.00	5	28	0.81
4	7	0.00	7	20	0.00	5	29	0.54
4	14	0.00	8	27	0.00	5	30	0.00
4	27	0.00	9	27	0.00	5	31	0.00
5	6	0.00	12	27	0.00	5	32	0.00
5	7	0.87	13	27	0.00	5	33	0.00
5	8	0.00	14	15	0.00	5	34	0.00
5	9	1.41	14	27	0.00	26	27	0.00
5	12	0.42	15	27	0.00	27	28	0.00
5	13	1.73	16	27	0.00	27	29	0.00
5	14	3.00	17	27	0.00	27	30	0.00
5	15	3.38	18	27	0.00	27	31	0.00
5	16	4.05	19	27	0.00	27	32	0.00
5	17	4.01	20	27	0.00	27	33	0.00
5	18	2.69	21	27	0.00	27	34	0.00
5	19	3.87	22	27	0.00	27	35	0.00
5	20	4.38	23	27	0.00	27	36	0.00
5	21	4.38	24	27	0.00	27	37	0.00
						27	38	0.00

序号	故障线路编号	故障发电机编号	切负荷量/MW	序号故障线路编号	故障发电机编号	切负荷量/MW
1	5	1	0.00	367	8	0.00
2	5	2	0.00	377	9	0.00
3	5	3	0.00	3827	1	0.00
4	5	4	0.00	3927	2	0.00
5	5	6	0.00	4027	3	0.00
6	5	7	0.00	4127	4	0.00
7	5	8	0.00	4227	6	0.00
8	5	9	0.00	4327	7	0.00
9	5	15	0.00	4427	8	0.00
10	5	16	0.00	4527	9	0.00
11	5	17	0.00	4627	15	0.00
12	5	22	0.00	4727	16	0.00
13	5	23	0.37	4827	17	0.00
14	5	24	0.11	4927	22	0.00
15	5	27	0.20	5027	23	0.00
16	5	28	0.00	5127	24	0.00
17	5	29	0.00	5227	27	0.00
18	5	30	0.59	5327	28	0.00
19	5	31	0.71	5427	29	0.00
20	5	32	1.44	5527	30	0.00
21	5	33	1.06	5627	31	0.00
22	5	35	1.28	5727	32	0.00
23	5	37	0.84	5827	33	0.00
24	5	41	0.36	5927	35	0.00
25	5	42	0.90	6027	37	0.00
26	5	43	0.68	6127	41	0.00
27	5	44	0.52	6227	42	0.00
28	5	45	0.00	6327	43	0.00
29	5	46	0.39	6427	44	0.00
30	5	47	0.82	6527	45	0.00
31	5	48	1.20	6627	46	0.00
32	5	49	3.67	6727	47	0.00
33	5	50	4.52	6827	48	0.00
34	7	3	0.00	6927	49	0.00
35	7	4	0.00	7027	50	0.00

指标	N=1 000			N=10 000
指标	LOLE （ / h·年^-1）	LOEE （ / MW·h·年^-1）	计算所需时间/s	LOLE （ / h·年^-1）	LOEE （ / MW·h·年^-1）	计算所需时间/s
常规蒙特卡洛法	7.87	1 443.5	12.3	9.06	1 503.8	89.5
基于SVM技术的蒙特卡洛法	7.67	1 273.9	1.8	7.97	1 300.5	7.7