全面实施携号转网对我国移动通信市场影响

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019214

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以我国移动用户为研究对象，采用随机抽样的调查方法，通过电话外呼的调查方式，对我国移动业务携号转网后移动通信市场格局及影响进行研究，运用“马尔可夫概率转移矩阵”对实施携号转网后全国及南北方移动电话市场份额进行了预测，并创新地提出“携号转网流向路径模型”。此外，重点围绕“区域特征、在网时长、ARPU值和携号转网人数”等对3家通信运营商携号转网用户的关注点及转出和转入原因进行深入剖析。结果表明：网龄越长、ARPU值越高，携号转网意愿越强；北方用户携号转网意愿高于南方。本文结论将为通信企业经营决策提供参考。

关键词: 携号转网, 马尔可夫概率转移矩阵, 携号转网流向路径模型, 市场份额预测, 马尔可夫性检验

Abstract:

China’s mobile users were taken as a research object,using the random sampling survey method and the survey way of CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) to conduct research on the mobile subscribers market’s structure and impact after implementation of MNP (mobile number portability).The Markov probability transfer matrix was used to predict the market share of mobile phones in China,North China and South China after the implementation of MNP.And the inflow and outflow path model was proposed innovatively.In addition,the focus was on regional characteristics,duration of use,ARPU value and number of MNP to further analyze the concerns and reasons of MNP.The result shows that the longer duration of use,the higher the ARPU value,and the stronger the willingness to choose other operators and the northern subscribers have more willing than the southern.The conclusions provide reference for the decision-making of communication operators.

Key words: MNP, Markov probability transfer matrix, inflow and outflow path model, market share forecast, Markov characteristic test

中图分类号:

C331

胡文玉,窦晓燕. 全面实施携号转网对我国移动通信市场影响[J]. 电信科学, 2019, 35(9): 124-134.

Wenyu HU,Xiaoyan DOU. Impact of the nationwide implementation of mobile number portabilityon mobile communications market[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2019, 35(9): 124-134.

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区域运营商	成功样本/个				有携号转网意愿样本/个
区域运营商	中国联通	中国电信	中国移动	小计	中国联通	中国电信	中国移动	小计
东北	179	179	270	628	33	37	39	109
华北	273	254	284	811	35	44	43	122
华东	258	164	245	667	34	42	43	119
华南	255	155	241	651	32	47	40	119
华中	250	207	293	750	35	35	38	108
西北	244	199	220	663	33	44	42	119
西南	373	150	269	792	33	43	43	119
总计	1 832	1 308	1 822	4 962	235	292	288	815

年份	是	否	没考虑好
2019年	16.4%	57.4%	26.2%
2010年	14.0%	52.0%	34.0%

区域	是	否	没考虑好
南方	16.1%	57.2%	26.8%
北方	16.7%	57.5%	25.8%

区域	总体	中国电信	中国联通	中国移动
东北	17.4%	18.4%	20.7%	14.4%
华北	15.0%	12.8%	17.3%	15.1%
华东	17.8%	13.2%	25.6%	17.6%
华南	18.3%	12.5%	30.3%	16.6%
华中	14.4%	14.0%	16.9%	13.0%
西北	17.9%	13.5%	22.1%	19.1%
西南	15.0%	8.8%	28.7%	16.0%
总计	16.4%	12.8%	22.3%	15.8%

流向	中国电信			中国联通			中国移动
流向	中国移动	中国联通	转出	中国移动	中国电信	转出	中国联通	中国电信	转出
东北	11.2%	5.6%	16.8%	8.9%	8.9%	17.9%	6.3%	5.9%	12.2%
华北	8.4%	2.9%	11.4%	9.1%	6.7%	15.7%	5.6%	8.8%	14.4%
华东	8.5%	3.1%	11.6%	11.6%	12.2%	23.8%	8.6%	8.6%	17.1%
华南	9.8%	1.6%	11.4%	15.5%	12.9%	28.4%	6.6%	9.5%	16.2%
华中	9.2%	4.0%	13.2%	8.7%	8.2%	16.9%	6.8%	5.5%	12.3%
西北	9.0%	3.7%	12.7%	7.0%	14.6%	21.6%	4.1%	14.1%	18.2%
西南	5.9%	1.6%	7.5%	12.7%	12.7%	25.3%	5.9%	7.8%	13.8%