一种博弈论辅助的机器学习算法检测用户流失行为

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020164

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国在2019年11月底正式实施已经试行了9年的携号转网政策。该政策会加强通信市场的流动性和竞争性，使运营商用户流失的问题更加突出。提出、验证并产品化了一种博弈论辅助的机器学习方案，以帮助运营商主动应对携号转网市场的竞争。所提方案为运营商提供了一种机器学习模型，检测用户的携转倾向，并给予差异化待遇。实验结果证明，所提方案能够指引运营商制定有针对性的携号转网策略，准确识别出有携入或者携出倾向的“异常”用户。此外，所提方案已被成功地产品化，极大地提高了运营商的营销效率，增加了用户的满意度，为中国某主要运营商减少了大约50%的用户流失。

关键词: 用户流失, 携号转网, 博弈论, 机器学习

Abstract:

At the end of November 2019,China officially implemented the number portability policy (MNP) that has been in trial for 9 years.The policy will strengthen the liquidity and competitiveness of the telecommunication market,making the problem of subscriber churn more prominent.A game theory-assisted machine learning methodology was proposed,verified and commercialized timely,which could help mobile network operator (MNO) actively respond to competition in the MNP market.The proposed methodology provides MNO with a machine learning model to detect subscriber portability and give differentiated treatment.Experimental results show that the proposed methodology can guide MNOs to make a targeted MNP strategy,and precisely identify “abnormal” subscribers who tend to churn-out and potential new subscribers who may churn-in.In addition,the proposed methodology has been successfully commercialized,greatly improving the marketing efficiency of operators,increasing user satisfaction,and reducing the loss of users by about 50% for a tier-1 MNO in China.

Key words: subscriber churn, mobile number portability, game theory, machine learning

中图分类号:

TP181

欧阳晔,杨爱东,孟凡语. 一种博弈论辅助的机器学习算法检测用户流失行为[J]. 电信科学, 2020, 36(6): 79-89.

Ye OUYANG,Aidong YANG,Fanyu MENG. A game theory-assisted machine learning methodology for subscriber churn behaviors detection[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2020, 36(6): 79-89.

图/表 13

图1

表1

评分基准"

特征	得分≥5	得分≥4	得分<4	得分≥3	得分<3	得分≥2	得分<2	得分≥1	得分<1	得分<0
${\tilde{x}}_{1}$	S₁₀	S₁₁	S₁₂	S₁₃	S₁₄	S₁₅	S₁₆	S₁₇	S₁₈	S₁₉
${\tilde{x}}_{2}$	S₂₀	S₂₁	S₂₂	S₂₃	S₂₄	S₂₅	S₂₆	S₂₇	S₂₈	S₂₉
${\tilde{x}}_{3}$	S₃₀	S₃₁	S₃₂	S₃₃	S₃₄	S₃₅	S₃₆	S₃₇	S₃₈	S₃₉
					#
${\tilde{x}}_{n}$	S_n0	S_n1	S_n2	S_n3	S_n4	S_n5	S_n6	S_n7	S_n8	S_n9

表1

表2

表3

特征重要性矩阵"

特征			特征				得分a_i	权重w_i
特征	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X_e	得分a_i	权重w_i
X₁	0	1	1	0	0	$1 - β_{e_{1}}$	2	0.2
X₄	1	1	0	0	0	$1 - β_{e_{4}}$	2	0.2
X₅	1	1	1	1	0	$1 - β_{e_{4}}$	4	0.4
X_e	$β_{e_{1}}$	$β_{e_{2}}$	$β_{e_{3}}$	$β_{e_{4}}$	$β_{e_{5}}$	0	$\sum_{j} β_{e_{j}}$	$\frac{α_{e}}{\sum_{i = 1}^{e} α_{i}}$

表3

表4

运营商A不同营销策略所选特征的营销目标"

营销目标v			特征
营销目标v	${\tilde{x}}_{1}$	${\tilde{x}}_{2}$	${\tilde{x}}_{3}$	${\tilde{x}}_{4}$	${\tilde{x}}_{5}$	${\tilde{x}}_{A}$
max_in	2%	11	57%	-5	66%	NA
min_out	-4%	20	61%	-8	64%	NA
max_in/out	5%	-14	54%	-1	69%	NA

表4

表5

表6

三大运营商在不同营销策略下的博弈收益"

博弈轮数	项目	运营商
博弈轮数	项目	A	B	C
第1轮	营销策略	max_in/out	max_in/out	max_in/out
	综合评分	0.3	-0.3	0
第2轮	营销策略	max_in/out	max_in/out	max_in
	综合评分	1.5	0.9	-2.4
第3轮	营销策略	max_in/out	max_in/out	min_out
	综合评分	-0.1	-0.7	0.8
第4轮	营销策略	max_in/out	max_in	max_in/out
	综合评分	-0.3	0.9	-0.6
第5轮	营销策略	max_in/out	max_in	max_in
	综合评分	0.9	2.1	-3
第6轮	营销策略	max_in/out	max_in	min_out
	综合评分	-0.7	0.5	0.2
第7轮	营销策略	max_in/out	min_out	max_in/out
	综合评分	0	0.3	-0.3
第8轮	营销策略	max_in/out	min_out	max_in
	综合评分	1.2	1.5	-2.7
第9轮	营销策略	max_in/out	min_out	min_out
	综合评分	-0.4	-0.1	0.5
第10轮	营销策略	max_in	max_in/out	max_in/out
	综合评分	-1.3	0.5	0.8
第11轮	营销策略	max_in	max_in/out	max_in
	综合评分	-0.1	1.7	-1.6
第12轮	营销策略	max_in	max_in/out	min_out
	综合评分	-1.7	0.1	1.6
第13轮	营销策略	max_in	max_in	max_in/out
	综合评分	-1.9	1.7	0.2
第14轮	营销策略	max_in	max_in	max_in
	综合评分	-0.7	2.9	-2.2
第15轮	营销策略	max_in	max_in	min_out
	综合评分	-2.3	1.3	1
第16轮	营销策略	max_in	min_out	max_in/out
	综合评分	-1.6	1.1	0.5
第17轮	营销策略	max_in	min_out	max_in
	综合评分	-0.4	2.3	-1.9
第18轮	营销策略	max_in	min_out	min_out
	综合评分	-2	0.7	1.3
第19轮	营销策略	min_out	max_in/out	max_in/out
	综合评分	0.7	-0.5	-0.2
第20轮	营销策略	min_out	max_in/out	max_in
	综合评分	1.9	0.7	-2.6
第21轮	营销策略	min_out	max_in/out	min_out
	综合评分	0.3	-0.9	0.6
第22轮	营销策略	min_out	max_in	max_in/out
	综合评分	0.1	0.7	-0.8
第23轮	营销策略	min_out	max_in	max_in
	综合评分	1.3	1.9	-3.2
第24轮	营销策略	min_out	max_in	min_out
	综合评分	-0.3	0.3	0
第25轮	营销策略	min_out	min_out	max_in/out
	综合评分	0.4	0.1	-0.5
第26轮	营销策略	min_out	min_out	max_in
	综合评分	1.6	1.3	-2.9
第27轮	营销策略	min_out	min_out	min_out
	综合评分	0	-0.3	0.3

表6

表7

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

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运营商				特征
运营商	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈
A	-5.88%	-70.4	58.50%	-29.7	68.20%	4 701.9	3.093	162.5
B	-0.79%	-14.8	13.90%	1.3	5.60%	389.5	0.467	38.8
C	-3.91%	-15.3	27.60%	1.3	26.20%	1 807.2	1.391	76.6

营销策略v	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X_A	综合得分Z_v
营销策略v	0.20	0.10	0.10	0.20	0.40	0	综合得分Z_v
max_in	3	4	4	2	3	NA	3.00
min_out	1	5	5	1	2	NA	2.20
max_in/out	5	1	1	2	4	NA	3.20

营销策略v		A			B			C
营销策略v	*Y₁	*Y₂	*Y₃	*Y₁	*Y₂	*Y₃	*Y₁	*Y₂	*Y₃
max_in	0.17	44%	56%	-0.1	33%	56%	0.27	44%	44%
min_out	1.37	0	100%	-2.5	100%	0	-1.33	100%	0
max_in/out	0.77	22%	78%	0.7	0	89%	0.67	11%	78%