基于电力大数据的经济景气指数分析

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020059

Abstract

Abstract:

Prosperity analysis is a statistical analysis method of economic cycle.By using monthly or quarterly data economic statistics sequence,the stage of economic development in periodic fluctuations can be analyzed and judged,which can provide reference for government economic policy decision-making and implementation.Electricity data is the “barometer” of national economy.Based on spatio-temporal electric power data and classical economic prosperity model,X13-ARIMA seasonal adjustment algorithm was firstly introduced in the calculation of electric prosperity index to construct an economic prosperity index based on big data of electric power,which objectively reflected the economic operation status and assists in predicting the economic development trend.The calculation achieves the economic goal from the perspective of electricity and provide reference for government policy making.

Key words: prosperity index, big data of electricity, time series, seasonal adjustment algorithm

CLC Number:

TP393

Yujiao LIU,Kunhuang SONG,Xiang WANG. Analysis of economic prosperity index based on big data of electricity[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2020, 36(6): 166-171.

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References 16

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行业序号	行业分类	领先周期/月	相关系数
87	公共管理和社会组织、国际组织	6	0.74
45	黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业	0	0.73
53	工艺品及其他制造业	3	0.70
76	房地产业	7	0.67
72	批发和零售业	6	0.64
47	有色金属冶炼及压延加工业	0	0.62
59	燃气生产和供应业	6	0.59
37	电石	0	0.57
70	计算机服务和软件业	3	0.52
43	非金属矿物制品业	0	0.51
73	住宿和餐饮业	9	0.51
41	橡胶和塑料制品业	-1	0.49
62	交通运输、仓储和邮政业	0	0.49
63	交通运输业	0	0.47

Analysis of economic prosperity index based on big data of electricity

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