全面实施携号转网对我国移动通信市场影响

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019214

Abstract

Abstract:

China’s mobile users were taken as a research object,using the random sampling survey method and the survey way of CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) to conduct research on the mobile subscribers market’s structure and impact after implementation of MNP (mobile number portability).The Markov probability transfer matrix was used to predict the market share of mobile phones in China,North China and South China after the implementation of MNP.And the inflow and outflow path model was proposed innovatively.In addition,the focus was on regional characteristics,duration of use,ARPU value and number of MNP to further analyze the concerns and reasons of MNP.The result shows that the longer duration of use,the higher the ARPU value,and the stronger the willingness to choose other operators and the northern subscribers have more willing than the southern.The conclusions provide reference for the decision-making of communication operators.

Key words: MNP, Markov probability transfer matrix, inflow and outflow path model, market share forecast, Markov characteristic test

CLC Number:

C331

Wenyu HU,Xiaoyan DOU. Impact of the nationwide implementation of mobile number portabilityon mobile communications market[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2019, 35(9): 124-134.

Figures/Tables 21

References 16

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区域运营商	成功样本/个				有携号转网意愿样本/个
区域运营商	中国联通	中国电信	中国移动	小计	中国联通	中国电信	中国移动	小计
东北	179	179	270	628	33	37	39	109
华北	273	254	284	811	35	44	43	122
华东	258	164	245	667	34	42	43	119
华南	255	155	241	651	32	47	40	119
华中	250	207	293	750	35	35	38	108
西北	244	199	220	663	33	44	42	119
西南	373	150	269	792	33	43	43	119
总计	1 832	1 308	1 822	4 962	235	292	288	815

年份	是	否	没考虑好
2019年	16.4%	57.4%	26.2%
2010年	14.0%	52.0%	34.0%

区域	是	否	没考虑好
南方	16.1%	57.2%	26.8%
北方	16.7%	57.5%	25.8%

区域	总体	中国电信	中国联通	中国移动
东北	17.4%	18.4%	20.7%	14.4%
华北	15.0%	12.8%	17.3%	15.1%
华东	17.8%	13.2%	25.6%	17.6%
华南	18.3%	12.5%	30.3%	16.6%
华中	14.4%	14.0%	16.9%	13.0%
西北	17.9%	13.5%	22.1%	19.1%
西南	15.0%	8.8%	28.7%	16.0%
总计	16.4%	12.8%	22.3%	15.8%

流向	中国电信			中国联通			中国移动
流向	中国移动	中国联通	转出	中国移动	中国电信	转出	中国联通	中国电信	转出
东北	11.2%	5.6%	16.8%	8.9%	8.9%	17.9%	6.3%	5.9%	12.2%
华北	8.4%	2.9%	11.4%	9.1%	6.7%	15.7%	5.6%	8.8%	14.4%
华东	8.5%	3.1%	11.6%	11.6%	12.2%	23.8%	8.6%	8.6%	17.1%
华南	9.8%	1.6%	11.4%	15.5%	12.9%	28.4%	6.6%	9.5%	16.2%
华中	9.2%	4.0%	13.2%	8.7%	8.2%	16.9%	6.8%	5.5%	12.3%
西北	9.0%	3.7%	12.7%	7.0%	14.6%	21.6%	4.1%	14.1%	18.2%
西南	5.9%	1.6%	7.5%	12.7%	12.7%	25.3%	5.9%	7.8%	13.8%

Impact of the nationwide implementation of mobile number portabilityon mobile communications market

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运营商	2019年净流入	2010年净流入	较2010年变化
中国电信	4.9%	4.6%	0.3%
中国联通	0.1%	-1.1%	1.2%
中国移动	-5.0%	-3.4%	-1.6%

区域运营企业	南方			北方
区域运营企业	实施前	实施后	净流入	实施前	实施后	净流入
中国电信	26.5%	31.0%	4.5%	13.8%	19.1%	5.3%
中国联通	13.6%	13.1%	-0.5%	26.3%	27.2%	0.9%
中国移动	59.9%	55.9%	-4.0%	59.9%	53.7%	-6.2%

携号转网原因	中国电信		中国联通		中国移动
携号转网原因	转出	转入	转出	转入	转出	转入
网络	66.0%	63.2%	76.8%	50.0%	69.2%	59.2%
手机网络覆盖	41.0%	36.8%	53.5%	27.1%	26.9%	57.4%
手机上网速度	37.3%	32.6%	36.2%	28.8%	26.2%	39.7%
宽带上网速度	15.6%	32.6%	23.6%	14.7%	22.7%	15.4%
业务	31.6%	43.6%	29.9%	52.4%	42.3%	37.5%
资费套餐	27.4%	37.5%	24.4%	45.9%	37.1%	21.3%
捆绑政策	4.2%	4.8%	4.1%	6.5%	5.2%	3.7%
全家共享资费/话费，实惠	3.8%	5.2%	3.3%	7.1%	5.9%	2.6%
宣传促销力度	0.9%	1.7%	2.2%	1.2%	1.0%	1.5%
服务	9.0%	5.5%	5.9%	6.5%	5.6%	8.8%
营业厅服务效率	5.2%	2.4%	2.2%	5.3%	3.5%	4.0%
客服热线服务效率	5.2%	2.1%	2.6%	3.5%	2.4%	4.8%
互联网渠道办理业务方便	4.2%	4.1%	4.4%	3.5%	2.4%	3.7%
终端与技术	2.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	0.7%	1.5%
手机终端种类	0.9%	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%	0.3%	1.1%
5G技术上网	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.4%
电视设计及功能	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%

转向	中国电信			中国联通			中国移动
转向	中国移动	中国联通	转出	中国移动	中国电信	转出	中国联通	中国电信	转出
1年以内	5.7%	5.7%	11.4%	8.5%	6.4%	14.9%	7.6%	3.3%	10.9%
1（含）～2年	12.6%	1.9%	14.5%	8.9%	8.9%	17.8%	5.1%	6.4%	11.5%
2（含）～3年	4.4%	2.6%	7.0%	6.1%	7.6%	13.7%	8.5%	5.1%	13.6%
3（含）～4年	14.2%	1.8%	16.0%	9.9%	16.0%	25.9%	9.3%	11.4%	20.7%
4（含）～5年	12.7%	1.7%	14.4%	14.5%	9.9%	24.4%	5.9%	6.3%	12.2%
5（含）年以上	8.6%	3.7%	12.3%	10.9%	11.8%	22.7%	6.4%	10.5%	16.9%

携号转网人数	总体	中国电信	中国联通	中国移动
1人	54.9%	55.8%	59.2%	49.8%
2～3人	28.6%	27.6%	27.2%	30.7%
4～5人	10.6%	12.6%	9.6%	10.0%
5人以上	5.90%	4.0%	3.9%	9.5%