Abstract:

The short-term traffic flow prediction is too dependent on the time correlation characteristics, which due to the problems that the correlation factors of the spatial correlation characteristics are too complicated and difficult to quantify.In response to this defect, a deep learning short-term traffic flow prediction method considering spatial-temporal association was proposed.Firstly, by constructing a spatial association measurement function that simultaneously considers distance, flow similarity, and speed similarity, the spatial correlation between the target road segment and the surrounding associated road segments was quantified and predicted.Then, a convolutional neural network model with long short-term memory neurons embedded was constructed.The long short-term memory neurons were used to extract the temporal correlation characteristics between the data, and the spatial correlation metric and the convolution transmission of traffic data were used to extract the spatial correlation characteristics between the data, so as to realize the traffic flow prediction considering the spatial-temporal association.The experimental results show that the proposed method can adapt to short-term forecasting under different traffic flow characteristics such as weekdays and weekends, and the prediction accuracy is better than that of the classical methods.In weekdays and weekends, the forecast bias are 10.45% and 12.35% respectively.

Key words: deep learning, intelligent transportation, traffic prediction, long short-term memory neural network, convolu-tional neural network