大数据 ›› 2016, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (5): 68-78.doi: 10.11959/j.issn.2096-0271.2016055

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基于征信大数据分析的中国劳动力人口迁徙研究

姚前,谢华美,司恩哲,景志刚,胡青青   

  1. 中国人民银行征信中心，北京 100031
  • 出版日期:2016-09-20 发布日期:2018-02-08

Qian YAO,Huamei XIE,Enzhe SI,Zhigang JING,Qingqing HU   

  1. Credit Reference Center,the People’s Bank of China,Beijing 100031,China
  • Online:2016-09-20 Published:2018-02-08

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摘要：

人口迁徙数据是反映城镇化建设的重要数据，可以为我国当前推进国家新型城镇化建设提供决策支持。中国人民银行征信中心依法收集的征信信息及时地反映了信息主体在迁徙过程中发生经济行为的时间和地点，在确定人口迁徙轨迹方面具有其他数据源难以比拟的优势。对3.9亿信息主体、48.8亿条征信记录进行分析挖掘，得出改革开放以来全国劳动力人口迁徙的新特点，并利用Logistic模型预测未来青壮年劳动力人口的迁徙趋势，得出相关结论。

关键词: 人口迁徙, 征信系统, Logistic模型

Abstract:

The data of population migration is an important data source to reflect urbanization and can provide support for government to promote new urbanization construction.The Credit Reference Center,the People’s Bank of China collects data from financial institutions which recorded time and place for economic behaviors during migration.The authentic and reliable data source give the Credit Reference Center an incomparable advantage to identify individual’s immigration trajectory.A comprehensive analysis was conducted based on 4.88 billion personal credit records of 390 million citizens from the database of Credit Reference Center.Several new characteristics of labor force migration since the economic reform and open up were concluded based on the analysis,furthermore,a Logistic model was applied to predict future tendency of labor force migration.

Key words: population migration, credit reference system, Logistic model

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