基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020322

电信科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (12): 49-58.doi: 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2020322

基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究

曹峰¹,张真继¹,关晓兰²

¹ 北京交通大学，北京 100044
² 北京印刷学院，北京 102600

修回日期:2020-12-11 出版日期:2020-12-20 发布日期:2020-12-23
作者简介:曹峰（1967- ），男，博士，现就职于北京交通大学经济管理学院，青岛市委宣传部副部长、文明办主任，主要研究方向为网络舆情传播的动力机制|张真继（1963- ），男，博士，北京交通大学教授、博士生导师，主要研究方向为网络社会生态学|关晓兰（1984- ），女，博士，北京印刷学院副教授，主要研究方向为信息化理论与方法
基金资助:
哲学社会科学北京市规划局重大计划资助项目(13ZDB10)

Research on the driving force model of internet public opinion based on system dynamics

Feng CAO¹,Zhenji ZHANG¹,Xiaolan GUAN²

¹ Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China
² Beijing Institute of Graphic Communication,Beijing 102600,China

Revised:2020-12-11 Online:2020-12-20 Published:2020-12-23
Supported by:
Beijing Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science Specially Entrusted Projects(13ZDB10)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

网络舆情作为社会舆情在互联网空间的映射，反过来影响着社会实体事件的发展进程。提升网络舆情处置能力，已成为管理部门的一项重要任务。分析了网络舆情的传播规律及其特点，利用系统动力学分析了网络舆论生态传播系统的驱动因素，通过因果回路图对因素之间的关系进行定性分析，并建立网络舆情驱动力模型。最后，对该模型进行仿真分析，以期提出积极管理网络舆情传播的建议。

关键词: 网络舆情传播, 系统动力学, 驱动力, 因果分析

Abstract:

Internet public opinion,as a reflection of social public opinion in the internet space,in turn affects the development process of social entity events.Improving the ability to deal with online public opinion has become an important task for party committees and government departments at all levels.The rules and characteristics of the spread of online public opinion were analyzed,system dynamics was used to analyze the driving factors of the ecological spread of online public opinion,the relationship between factors was analyzed through causal loop diagrams,and a model of the driving force of online public opinion was established.Finally,the model was simulated and analyzed,in order to put forward suggestions for actively managing the spread of online public opinion.

Key words: internet public opinion communication, system dynamics, driving force, causal analysis

中图分类号:

TP393

曹峰,张真继,关晓兰. 基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究[J]. 电信科学, 2020, 36(12): 49-58.

Feng CAO,Zhenji ZHANG,Xiaolan GUAN. Research on the driving force model of internet public opinion based on system dynamics[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2020, 36(12): 49-58.

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统计指标	分类指标	人数	比例
性别	男	43	53.75%
	女	37	46.25%
年龄	20岁以下	10	12.50%
	20~29岁	44	55.00%
	30~45岁	12	15.00%
	45岁以上	14	17.50%
网龄	5年以下	19	23.75%
	5~10年	32	40.00%
	10年以上	29	36.25%

基于系统动力学的网络舆情驱动力模型研究

Research on the driving force model of internet public opinion based on system dynamics

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