Network security equipment evaluation based on attack tree with risk fusion

doi:10.11959/j.issn.2096-109x.2017.00183

Abstract

Ran CHENG,Yue-ming LU. [J]. Chinese Journal of Network and Information Security, 2017, 3(7): 70-77.

Figures/Tables 9

Event			Risk interval
Event	0.05～0.15	0.15～0.25	0.25～0.35	0.35～0.45	0.45～0.55
C1	$\frac{1}{10}$	$\frac{2}{10}$	$\frac{4}{10}$	$\frac{2}{10}$	$\frac{1}{10}$
C2	$\frac{1}{10}$	$\frac{1}{10}$	$\frac{2}{10}$	$\frac{3}{10}$	$\frac{3}{10}$
C3	$\frac{3}{10}$	$\frac{4}{10}$	$\frac{2}{10}$	$\frac{1}{10}$	0
C4	$\frac{1}{10}$	$\frac{1}{10}$	$\frac{5}{10}$	$\frac{3}{10}$	0

Risk Interval	Risk Distribution
0.05～0.15	$\frac{1}{10} \times \frac{1}{10} = 0.01$
0.15～0.25	$\frac{2}{10} \times (\frac{1}{10} + \frac{1}{10}) + \frac{1}{10} \times \frac{1}{10} = 0.05$
0.25～0.35	$\frac{4}{10} \times (\frac{1}{10} + \frac{1}{10} + \frac{2}{10}) + \frac{2}{10} \times (\frac{1}{10} + \frac{2}{10}) = 0.22$
0.35～0.45	$\frac{2}{10} \times (\frac{1}{10} + \frac{1}{10} + \frac{2}{10} + \frac{3}{10}) + \frac{3}{10} \times (\frac{1}{10} + \frac{2}{10} + \frac{4}{10}) = 0.35$
0.45～0.55	$\frac{1}{10} \times (\frac{1}{10} + \frac{1}{10} + \frac{2}{10} + \frac{4}{10} + \frac{3}{10}) + \frac{3}{10} \times (\frac{1}{10} + \frac{2}{10} + \frac{4}{10} + \frac{2}{10}) = 0.37$

Fig.5

References 10

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[2]	HERRMANN D S . Using the common criteria for IT security evaluation[M]. Florida: CRC PressPress, 2002.
[3]	HAN L M Q . Analysis and study on AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 1983.
[4]	FUNG C , CHEN Y L , WANG X ,et al. Survivability analysis of distributed systems using attack tree methodology[C]// Military Communications Conference. 2005: 583-589.
[5]	CHAPMAN C B , COOPER D F . Risk engineering:basic controlled interval and memory models[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1983,34(1): 51-60.
[6]	SAATY L . How to make a decision:the analytic hierarchy process[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1990,48(1): 9-26.
[7]	PETTERSSON J . A study on software management approaches:proposing a project support tool[J]. University West Library, 2003.
[8]	VAN-HOLSTEIJN F A . The motivation of attackers in attack tree analysis[J]. TU Delft Library, 2015.
[9]	ZHANG X , BAI Y , LV L . Application of the controlled interval and memory model in the risk assessment of city gas transmission and distribution networks[C]// The International Conference on Pipelines and Trenchless Technology. 2012.
[10]	GONG Y , MABU S , CHEN C ,et al. Intrusion detection system combining misuse detection and anomaly detection using genetic network programming[C]// Iccas-Sice. 2009: 3463-3467.

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Interval’s midpoint	Interval’s probability
0.1	0
0.2	0
0.3	0.001
0.4	0.012
0.5	0.089
0.6	0.247
0.7	0.255
0.8	0.239
0.9	0.157

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