行业竞合变革下移动通信市场格局趋势

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2021053

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2019年10月，伴随携号转网全面实施，工业和信息化部及国务院国有资产监督管理委员会加强行业竞争监管，开启三大电信运营商的竞合变革。利用马尔可夫链模型分析移动通信市场占有率的变化，创新性地通过对比研究通信行业竞争环境变化前后的状态转移概率矩阵，预测移动通信市场格局短期发展趋势。研究发现，行业竞合变革影响大于携号转网政策影响，移动电话用户留在本网的概率反而有所提升。根据行业竞合变革后的状态转移概率矩阵预测，未来中短期3家运营商的竞争格局呈现中国电信移动市场占有率提升，中国移动和中国联通移动市场占有率下降的趋势，但是中国移动的市场占有率仍居第一位。未来行业竞合还需进一步加强法律建设、政策监管、共建共享和运营管理，加快5G及高质量发展，开拓移动通信市场新格局。

关键词: 行业竞合, 携号转网, 移动市场占有率, 马尔可夫链, 状态转移概率矩阵

Abstract:

In October 2019, with the nationwide implementation of mobile number portability, MIIT and SASAC strengthened industry competition supervision and initiated the industry co-competition of the three major telecom operators in China.The short-term development trend of China mobile communications market was predicted by utilizing Markov chain model to analyze the changes in the market share of mobile communication market, and the state transition probability matrixes before and after the change of the industry’s competitive environment caused by regulatory policies were innovatively compared.The study shows that the impact of industry co-competition reform is greater the nationwide implementation of MNP, the probability of mobile users to lock-in has increased.According to the prediction of the state transition probability matrix after industry co-competition, China Telecom’s mobile market share will increase, while China Mobile and China Unicom Mobile’s market share will decline in the short and medium term.However, China Mobile will continue to maintain its dominant position.To accelerate 5G high-quality development and open up a new pattern in the mobile communication market, the industry co-competition environment needs to be further optimized to strengthen regulatory policy, 5Gco-construction, and operation management.

Key words: industry co-competition, mobile number portability, mobile market share, Markov chain, state transition probability matrix

中图分类号:

F626，F224

刁塑, 蒋成. 行业竞合变革下移动通信市场格局趋势[J]. 电信科学, 2021, 37(3): 154-161.

Su DIAO, Cheng JIANG. Trend of mobile communication market pattern under the reform of industry co-competition[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2021, 37(3): 154-161.

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月份	期数	移动电话用户/万户			移动用户市场占有率
月份	期数	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
2018年12月	0	30 300	92 507	31 504	19.64%	59.95%	20.42%
2019年1月	1	30 726	92 748	31 780	19.79%	59.74%	20.47%
2019年2月	2	31 022	92 857	31 976	19.90%	59.58%	20.52%
2019年3月	3	31 505	93 139	32 136	20.09%	59.41%	20.50%
2019年4月	4	31 856	93 155	32 427	20.23%	59.17%	20.60%
2019年5月	5	32 146	93 208	32 433	20.37%	59.07%	20.55%
2019年6月	6	32 348	93 505	32 435	20.44%	59.07%	20.49%
2019年7月	7	32 580	93 864	32 446	20.50%	59.07%	20.42%
2019年8月	8	32 806	94 128	32 465	20.58%	59.05%	20.37%
2019年9月	9	33 043	94 203	32 473	20.69%	58.98%	20.33%

月份	期数	移动电话用户/万户			移动用户市场占有率
月份	期数	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
2019年9月	0	33 043	94 203	32 473	20.69%	58.98%	20.33%
2019年10月	1	33 253	94 359	32 212	20.81%	59.04%	20.15%
2019年11月	2	33 439	94 655	32 126	20.87%	59.08%	20.05%
2019年12月	3	33 557	95 028	31 848	20.92%	59.23%	19.85%
2020年1月	4	33 600	94 942	31 729	20.96%	59.24%	19.80%
2020年2月	5	33 040	94 216	31 069	20.87%	59.51%	19.62%
2020年3月	6	33 655	94 630	31 101	21.12%	59.37%	19.51%
2020年4月	7	33 852	94 673	30 929	21.23%	59.37%	19.40%
2020年5月	8	34 120	94 698	30 875	21.37%	59.30%	19.33%
2020年6月	9	34 347	94 674	30 953	21.47%	59.18%	19.35%

运营商	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
中国电信	89.79%	10.21%	0.00%
中国移动	0.04%	90.03%	9.93%
中国联通	10.52%	18.32%	71.17%

运营商	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
中国电信	94.20%	5.49%	0.31%
中国移动	2.20%	92.76%	5.04%
中国联通	0	15.97%	84.03%

月份	移动用户市场占有率
月份	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
2020年7月	21.53%	59.16%	19.31%
2020年8月	21.58%	59.15%	19.27%
2020年9月	21.63%	59.13%	19.24%
2020年10月	21.68%	59.11%	19.22%
2020年11月	21.72%	59.09%	19.19%
2020年12月	21.76%	59.06%	19.17%
…	…	…	…
2021年6月	21.95%	58.96%	19.09%
…	…	…	…
2021年12月	22.08%	58.88%	19.04%