基于改进人口模型的微博话题趋势预测

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2015094

Abstract

Abstract:

Although trend forecasting problem is the research focus of social computing，yet the topic trend forecast of micro logging platform is still at the exploratory stage.Based on the analyzing，extracting and defining the influencing factors of the trends of event，the improved Malthus model，which is more applicable to solve microblogging topic trend forecast problem is presented.Then the model is mapped to the neural network，and the genetic algorithms are used to predict the trend of events.Experiments show that this method can predict the trend of long-term events in the social network with good results，and can predict the outbreak point and posting volume effectively.It is worth nothing that the method is also suitable for small sample forecasting problems.

Key words: social computing, trend forecasting, neural network, malthus model, social networks

Yan-xiang HE,Jian-bo LIU,Nan LIU,Min PENG,Qiang CHEN,Jing HE. Based on improved malthusian model microblogging topic trend forecast[J]. Journal on Communications, 2015, 36(4): 1-8.

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References 13

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话题编号	话题名称	开始时间	结束时间	持续时间/天	发帖量	爆发时间
1	2013年两会	3月2日	3月14日	12	73 310	3月6日
2	H7N9流感	3月31日	4月13日	13	78 813	4月8日
3	北京雾霾天气	1月5日	1月20日	15	32 600	1月17日
4	国五条颁布	3月1日	3月30日	29	26 509	3月29日
5	黄浦江死猪事件	3月5日	3月23日	18	19 279	3月13日
6	撒切尔夫人去世	4月8日	4月21日	20	20 418	4月9日
7	雅安地震	4月20日	5月4日	15	101 967	4月24日

话题编号	训练集时间段	测试集时间段
1	3月2日～3月4日	3月5日～3月9日
2	3月31日～4月5日	4月6日～4月10日
3	1月5日～1月14日	1月15日～1月19日
4	3月1日～3月25日	3月26日～3月30日
5	3月5日～3月10日	3月11日～3月15日
6	4月1日～4月1日	4月2日～4月6日
7	4月20日～4月22日	4月23～4月27日

事件编号	平均误差率
1	0.215
2	0.139
3	0.211
4	0.864
5	0.149
6	—
7	0.075

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Based on improved malthusian model microblogging topic trend forecast

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