Journal on Communications ›› 2016, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 95-104.doi: 10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2016160
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Xiao-shi FAN,Ying-jie LEI,Yan-li LU,Ya-nan WANG
Online:
2016-08-25
Published:
2016-09-01
Xiao-shi FAN,Ying-jie LEI,Yan-li LU,Ya-nan WANG. Long-term intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model based on DTW[J]. Journal on Communications, 2016, 37(8): 95-104.
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序号 | Base |
1 | <0.38,0.61>,<0.66,0.33>,<0.56,0.43>,<0.47,0.52>,<0.72,0.27> |
2 | <0.61,0.37>,<0.54,0.45>,<0.43,0.56>,<0.69,0.30>,<0.48,0.50> |
3 | <0.51,0.48>,<0.40,0.59>,<0.68,0.31>,<0.55,0.44>,<0.47,0.53> |
4 | <0.50,0.48>,<0.67,0.32>,<0.53,0.45>,<0.48,0.51>,<0.35,0.64> |
5 | <0.70,0.28>,<0.50,0.49>,<0.46,0.53>,<0.37,0.62>,<0.62,0.37> |
6 | <0.41,0.58>,<0.70,0.29>,<0.44,0.55>,<0.39,0.6>,<0.78,0.21>,<0.62,0.37> |
7 | <0.75,0.24>,<0.44,0.55>,<0.72,0.27>,<0.44,0.55>,<0.31,0.68>,<0.58,0.40> |
8 | <0.31,0.67>,<0.50,0.48>,<0.64,0.35>,<0.61,0.38>,<0.49,0.50>,<0.88,0.11> |
9 | <0.17,0.81>,<0.66,0.33>,<0.75,0.24>,<0.44,0.55>,<0.72,0.27>,<0.61,0.38> |
10 | <0.28,0.71>,<0.66,0.33>,<0.29,0.70>,<0.56,0.43>,<0.24,0.75>,<0.42,0.58> |
11 | <0.41,0.58>,<0.78,0.21>,<0.31,0.68>,<0.450.55>,<0.17,0.82>,<0.38,0.60>,<0.44,0.55>, |
12 | <0.70,0.29>,<0.40,0.60>,<0.52,0.47>,<0.34,0.65>,<0.66,0.63>,<0.51,0.48>,<0.72,0.28> |
13 | <0.88,0.11>,<0.50,0.49>,<0.66,0.33>,<0.75,0.25>,<0.78,0.21>,<0.66,0.33>,<0.61,0.38> |
14 | <0.61,0.38>,<0.82,0.17>,<0.29,0.61>,<0.66,0.33>,<0.62,0.37>,<0.66,0.33>,<0.44,0.55> |
15 | <0.28,0.71>,<0.61,0.38>,<0.40,0.59>,<0.28,0.71>,<0.58,0.41>,<0.61,0.38>,<0.31.0.68> |
"
序列 | 测试数据 | 预测值 1 | 预测值 2 |
1 | 51.5 | — | — |
2 | 31.8 | — | — |
3 | 30.6 | — | — |
4 | 40.5 | 41.50 | 39.25 |
5 | 50.6 | — | — |
6 | 46.6 | 43.72 | 57.05 |
7 | 51.4 | — | — |
8 | 33.2 | 29.32 | 38.34 |
9 | 44.7 | — | — |
10 | 35.0 | 31.23 | 48.54 |
11 | 50.3 | — | — |
12 | 38.0 | 47.75 | 34.12 |
13 | 31.5 | — | — |
14 | 50.6 | 52.31 | 59.78 |
15 | 56.1 | — | — |
16 | 45.3 | 43.74 | 40.12 |
17 | 36.2 | — | — |
18 | 54.0 | 52.12 | 56.32 |
19 | 52.0 | — | — |
20 | 48.8 | 42.12 | 45.23 |
"
模型 | MSE | AFER | |||||
3月 | 8月 | 全年 | 3月 | 8月 | 全年 | ||
文献[ | 5.462 2 | 4.499 8 | 5.284 7 | 22.75% | 7.28% | 52.20% | |
文献[ | 1.938 3 | 4.633 4 | 3.060 1 | 13.08% | 7.66% | 39.67% | |
文献[ | 6.673 6 | 4.676 5 | 6.131 7 | 24.38% | 6.82% | 32.92% | |
文献[ | 3.076 0 | 2.115 2 | 3.022 9 | 16.91% | 4.53% | 42.76% | |
本文模型,w=6,d=1,c=5 | 1.579 8 | 2.096 9 | 2.074 4 | 13.04% | 4.64% | 30.74% |
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