TSL：基于连接强度的Facebook消息流行度预测模型

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-436x.2019207

Abstract

Abstract:

The rapid development of online social networks leads to an explosion of information,however,there are great differences in the popularity of different messages,and accurate prediction is always a great difficulty is the current study.Popularity prediction of online content aims to predict the popularity in the future based on its early diffusion status.Existing models for popularity prediction were mostly based on discovering network features or fitting the equation into a varying time function that the accuracy of current popularity prediction model was not high enough.Therefore,with the help of the weak ties theory in sociology,the concept of tie strength was introduced and a multilinear regression equation was constructed combined with the early popularity.A TSL model to predict the popularity of Facebook’s well-known pages was proposed.The main contribution of this article was to solve the problem and few or no work based on sociology.A high linear correlation between the proportion of faithful fans was existed in Facebook homepage with frequent shares in the early and the future popularity.Compared with other baseline models,an experimental study of Facebook (including 1.54 million shares) illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed TSL model,and the performance is better than the existing similar methods.

Key words: online social networks, weak ties, popularity, information diffusion

CLC Number:

TP393

Xiaomeng WANG, Binxing FANG, Hongli ZHANG, Xing WANG. TSL:predicting popularity of Facebook content based on tie strength[J]. Journal on Communications, 2019, 40(10): 1-9.

Figures/Tables 9

References 23

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主页	类别	消息总数/条	转发数/次	点赞数/次
Geographic	A	256	177 130	469 498
History	A	474	76 022	168 570
NBA	A	714	330 728	849 734
Call of Duty	B	294	38 357	122 610
Grey’s Anatomy	B	360	64 571	288 365
Fox News	A	562	215 803	570 201
The Simpsons	B	395	157 205	390 057
Will Smith	B	151	144 793	451 108
Barack Obama	A	248	211 807	498 824
Harry Potter	B	321	120 824	429 731

主页	RMSE	r	f	转发用户数
Geographic	0.278 325 94	0.854 637 37	1.9%	177 130
History	0.327 377 78	0.800 401 19	2.4%	76 022
NBA	0.286 945 86	0.877 307 71	9.5%	330 728
Call of Duty	0.191 666 00	0.937 414 42	0.4%	38 357
Grey’s Anatomy	0.261 488 96	0.858 801 76	0.7%	64 571
Fox News	0.308 733 30	0.851 034 12	1.8%	215 803
The Simpsons	0.246 806 58	0.903 169 68	0.4%	157 205
Will Smith	0.217 223 48	0.902 040 75	0.3%	144 793
Harry Potter	0.195 716 76	0.889 507 83	0.1%	120 824
Barack Obama	0.288 655 17	0.766 377 99	1.7%	211 807

TSL:predicting popularity of Facebook content based on tie strength

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