Telecommunications Science ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 124-134.doi: 10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2019214

• Operation technology wide Angle • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Impact of the nationwide implementation of mobile number portabilityon mobile communications market

Wenyu HU1,2,Xiaoyan DOU2   

  1. 1 Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China
    2 Sciresearch Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102200,China
  • Revised:2019-09-02 Online:2019-09-20 Published:2019-09-30


China’s mobile users were taken as a research object,using the random sampling survey method and the survey way of CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviewing) to conduct research on the mobile subscribers market’s structure and impact after implementation of MNP (mobile number portability).The Markov probability transfer matrix was used to predict the market share of mobile phones in China,North China and South China after the implementation of MNP.And the inflow and outflow path model was proposed innovatively.In addition,the focus was on regional characteristics,duration of use,ARPU value and number of MNP to further analyze the concerns and reasons of MNP.The result shows that the longer duration of use,the higher the ARPU value,and the stronger the willingness to choose other operators and the northern subscribers have more willing than the southern.The conclusions provide reference for the decision-making of communication operators.

Key words: MNP, Markov probability transfer matrix, inflow and outflow path model, market share forecast, Markov characteristic test

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