Abstract:

Grey GM（1,1）prediction method is only suitable for the prediction model of the original sequence which satisfies the characteristic of the approximate exponential through the accumulated generating operation.In order to widen the application range of the traditional grey prediction model,a new method,dubbed DGM（1,1,c,β）model（direct grey model）,was proposed to improve the accuracy of grey GM（1,1）prediction by optimizing initial conditions.DGM（1,1,c,β）model was established for the original sequence conforming to the approximate exponential and the model parameters were obtained by the particle swarm optimization algorithm.Both the simulation and analysis of the example demonstrate that the proposed method is more effective and practical.

Key words: grey GM（1,1）model, initial condition, PSO algorithm, DGM（1,1,c,β）model