基于智能体建模的新冠肺炎疫情传播问题研究

doi:10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202308

智能科学与技术学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (1): 51-57.doi: 10.11959/j.issn.2096-6652.202308

基于智能体建模的新冠肺炎疫情传播问题研究

项凤涛, 苏炯铭, 谷学强, 张万鹏

国防科技大学智能科学学院，湖南长沙 410073

修回日期:2023-02-17 出版日期:2023-03-15 发布日期:2023-03-01
通讯作者: 项凤涛，xiangfengtao@nudt.edu.cn
作者简介:项凤涛（1986- ），男，博士，国防科技大学智能科学学院副教授，主要研究方向为智能辅助决策、不确定性推理、模式识别、机器学习
苏炯铭（1984- ），男，博士，国防科技大学智能科学学院副研究员，主要研究方向为可解释人工智能、智能博弈
谷学强（1983- ），男，博士，国防科技大学智能科学学院副研究员，主要研究方向为智能规划与决策、智能控制
张万鹏（1981- ），男，博士，国防科技大学智能科学学院研究员，主要研究方向为智能决策、任务规划、自动化和控制、人机协同
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61603403);国家自然科学基金资助项目(U1734208);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2021JJ40693)

Research on the spread and countermeasures of COVID-19 using agent-based modeling

Fengtao XIANG, Jiongming SU, Xueqiang Gu, Wanpeng ZHANG

College of Intelligence Science and Technology, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, China

Revised:2023-02-17 Online:2023-03-15 Published:2023-03-01
Contact: 项凤涛，xiangfengtao@nudt.edu.cn
Supported by:
The National Natural Science Foundation of China(61603403);The National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1734208);The Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2021JJ40693)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情传播及防控相关问题，基于智能体建模思想对 COVID-19 疫情进行研究。首先基于COVID-19传播机理在NetLogo平台建立数学模型，模拟疫情传播的真实过程；其次分析评估不同因素（如疫情防控措施，人群走动方式，COVID-19 潜伏期、治愈期和死亡率等）对疫情传播的影响，以了解影响疫情态势的核心因素；进而分析和总结疫情传播的内在规律。

关键词: 智能体建模, 新型冠状病毒肺炎, 防控措施, 因素评估

Abstract:

Aiming at the problems related to the spread and prevention and control of COVID-19, the COVID-19 epidemic was studied based on agent based modeling thought.Firstly, based on the COVID-19 transmission mechanism, a mathematical model was established on the NetLogo platform to simulate the real process of epidemic spread.Secondly, the impacts of different factors (such as epidemic prevention and control measures, population migration patterns, COVID-19 incubation period, cure period and mortality) were analyzed and evaluated on the spread of the epidemic, so as to understand the core factors affecting the epidemic situation.Then, the internal law of the epidemic spread was analyzed and summarized.

Key words: agent-based modeling, COVID-19, prevention and control measures, factor evaluation

中图分类号:

TP391.9

项凤涛, 苏炯铭, 谷学强, 等. 基于智能体建模的新冠肺炎疫情传播问题研究[J]. 智能科学与技术学报, 2023, 5(1): 51-57.

Fengtao XIANG, Jiongming SU, Xueqiang Gu, et al. Research on the spread and countermeasures of COVID-19 using agent-based modeling[J]. Chinese Journal of Intelligent Science and Technology, 2023, 5(1): 51-57.

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年龄	死亡率
0～19岁	0.2%
20～49岁	0.3%
50～69岁	3.6%
70岁以上	9.7%

基于智能体建模的新冠肺炎疫情传播问题研究

Research on the spread and countermeasures of COVID-19 using agent-based modeling

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