行业竞合变革下移动通信市场格局趋势

doi:10.11959/j.issn.1000-0801.2021053

Abstract

Abstract:

In October 2019, with the nationwide implementation of mobile number portability, MIIT and SASAC strengthened industry competition supervision and initiated the industry co-competition of the three major telecom operators in China.The short-term development trend of China mobile communications market was predicted by utilizing Markov chain model to analyze the changes in the market share of mobile communication market, and the state transition probability matrixes before and after the change of the industry’s competitive environment caused by regulatory policies were innovatively compared.The study shows that the impact of industry co-competition reform is greater the nationwide implementation of MNP, the probability of mobile users to lock-in has increased.According to the prediction of the state transition probability matrix after industry co-competition, China Telecom’s mobile market share will increase, while China Mobile and China Unicom Mobile’s market share will decline in the short and medium term.However, China Mobile will continue to maintain its dominant position.To accelerate 5G high-quality development and open up a new pattern in the mobile communication market, the industry co-competition environment needs to be further optimized to strengthen regulatory policy, 5Gco-construction, and operation management.

Key words: industry co-competition, mobile number portability, mobile market share, Markov chain, state transition probability matrix

CLC Number:

F626，F224

Su DIAO, Cheng JIANG. Trend of mobile communication market pattern under the reform of industry co-competition[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2021, 37(3): 154-161.

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References 16

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月份	期数	移动电话用户/万户			移动用户市场占有率
月份	期数	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
2018年12月	0	30 300	92 507	31 504	19.64%	59.95%	20.42%
2019年1月	1	30 726	92 748	31 780	19.79%	59.74%	20.47%
2019年2月	2	31 022	92 857	31 976	19.90%	59.58%	20.52%
2019年3月	3	31 505	93 139	32 136	20.09%	59.41%	20.50%
2019年4月	4	31 856	93 155	32 427	20.23%	59.17%	20.60%
2019年5月	5	32 146	93 208	32 433	20.37%	59.07%	20.55%
2019年6月	6	32 348	93 505	32 435	20.44%	59.07%	20.49%
2019年7月	7	32 580	93 864	32 446	20.50%	59.07%	20.42%
2019年8月	8	32 806	94 128	32 465	20.58%	59.05%	20.37%
2019年9月	9	33 043	94 203	32 473	20.69%	58.98%	20.33%

月份	期数	移动电话用户/万户			移动用户市场占有率
月份	期数	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
2019年9月	0	33 043	94 203	32 473	20.69%	58.98%	20.33%
2019年10月	1	33 253	94 359	32 212	20.81%	59.04%	20.15%
2019年11月	2	33 439	94 655	32 126	20.87%	59.08%	20.05%
2019年12月	3	33 557	95 028	31 848	20.92%	59.23%	19.85%
2020年1月	4	33 600	94 942	31 729	20.96%	59.24%	19.80%
2020年2月	5	33 040	94 216	31 069	20.87%	59.51%	19.62%
2020年3月	6	33 655	94 630	31 101	21.12%	59.37%	19.51%
2020年4月	7	33 852	94 673	30 929	21.23%	59.37%	19.40%
2020年5月	8	34 120	94 698	30 875	21.37%	59.30%	19.33%
2020年6月	9	34 347	94 674	30 953	21.47%	59.18%	19.35%

运营商	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
中国电信	89.79%	10.21%	0.00%
中国移动	0.04%	90.03%	9.93%
中国联通	10.52%	18.32%	71.17%

运营商	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
中国电信	94.20%	5.49%	0.31%
中国移动	2.20%	92.76%	5.04%
中国联通	0	15.97%	84.03%

月份	移动用户市场占有率
月份	中国电信	中国移动	中国联通
2020年7月	21.53%	59.16%	19.31%
2020年8月	21.58%	59.15%	19.27%
2020年9月	21.63%	59.13%	19.24%
2020年10月	21.68%	59.11%	19.22%
2020年11月	21.72%	59.09%	19.19%
2020年12月	21.76%	59.06%	19.17%
…	…	…	…
2021年6月	21.95%	58.96%	19.09%
…	…	…	…
2021年12月	22.08%	58.88%	19.04%

Trend of mobile communication market pattern under the reform of industry co-competition

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