基于贝叶斯网络的移动业务客户流失预测研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0801.2009.03.021

Abstract

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of customers loss could enable mobile business to offer different service for specific needs and consumption of users. A model for the forecast of the loss of customers had been constructed based on Bayesian network. And according to the results of case studies，the paper identified the reasons for customer churn tend to look for a customer base with a high tendency to off-grid，and through the characteristics analysis of the classification，the rules of loss of customers had been arrived at and the effectiveness of the model had been verified.

Key words: customer loss, Bayesian network, mobile service, prediction

Hongxin Gui,Changhao Yang,Fei Cheng. Research on Customer Loss Prediction for Mobile Service Based on Bayesian Network[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2009, 25(3): 70-75.

临界值θ		训练样本集评价结果			测试样本集评价结果
临界值θ	I类错误率	II类错误率	整体错误率	I类错误率	II类错误率	整体错误率
Mk（0.5）	0.32	0.03	0.04	0.33	0.06	0.08
M1（0.5）	0.30	0.02	0.04	0.31	0.05	0.07
M1（0.4）	0.19	0.15	0.15	0.21	0.13	0.14
M1（0.2）	0.15	0.21	0.21	0.16	0.18	0.18

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Research on Customer Loss Prediction for Mobile Service Based on Bayesian Network

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