基于评价决策法构建区域通信潜力评估模型及实证分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0801.2010.05.017

Abstract

Abstract:

The assessment of communication development potentialities is a complicate decision-making problem，combined qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. EDP（evaluation decision procedure）is a good method to resolve aboved problem. This paper will try to establish a system of communication development potentialities based on influence factors analysis and EDP，to explain the source of communication development potentialities.

Key words: EDP, region potentiality, assessment model, communication

Fan Bu,Yunling Fan. Assessment Model and Empirical Analysis of Region Communication Development Potentialities Based on Evaluation Decision Procedure[J]. Telecommunications Science, 2010, 26(5): 66-71.

市场发展潜力	区域社会经济发展因素	如区域GDP（人均GDP）、区域城镇化进程、人民生活水平等
	区域发展潜力因素	如通信市场饱和程度、行业收入增长率、区域信息化程度、电话普及率等
	企业经营潜力因素	如网络实占率、转型业务成长性等
市场竞争力	区域竞争环境	如市场占有率等
市场竞争力	区域企业经营因素	如收入结构、网络质量、投资情况等

区域市场潜力评估决策指标	指标权重
人均GDP
城镇化比例
信息化程度
人均通信消费支出
行业增长率
电话普及率
宽带普及率
无线网络实占率
宽带实占率
非话收入占比增幅
自动校验是否满足权重合计为1

区域市场潜力评估决策指标	专家1	…	专家n 算术平均
人均GDP
城镇化比例
信息化程度
人均通信消费支出
行业增长率
电话普及率
宽带普及率
无线网络实占率
宽带实占率
非话收入占比增幅
自动校验是否满足权重合计为1

一级指标	二级指标	指标权重	指标说明
外部环境	GDP增长率	0.10	反映区域社会经济因素
	城镇化比例	0.10	城镇人口/本地区常住人口
	人均通信支出	0.13	通信行业总收入/本地区总人口
	信息化程度	0.13	反映城市信息化水平
通信市场	行业增长率	0.16	行业收入增长率
	电话普及率	0.05	（固话+移动）/总人口
	宽带普及率	0.10	宽带用户/家庭数
企业经营	非话收入增幅	0.13	2008 年非话收入比—2007年非话收入比
	移动通信能力	0.05	1x实占容量/1x网络容量
	数据通信能力	0.05	宽带接入实占用户端口容量/端口总数

一级指标	二级指标	指标权重	指标说明
市场地位	收入份额	0.22	电信收入/行业总收入
	用户份额	0.20	电信电话用户/电话总数
财务状况	3 年收入平均增	0.17	复合收入增长率
	长率
	政企收入占比	0.10	政企收入/总收入
	投资增长率	0.09	2008 年资本性支出增长率
学习创新	全员劳动生产率	0.12	企业收入/企业员工数
	非话收入占比	0.11	非话收入/总收入

Assessment Model and Empirical Analysis of Region Communication Development Potentialities Based on Evaluation Decision Procedure

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	区域潜力评分	市场竞争力评分
区县1	3.6	3.2
区县2	3.6	3.5
区县3	3.8	2.7
区县4	3.6	3.1
区县5	4.2	3.6
区县6	3.4	2.5
区县7	2.5	3.2
区县8	2.7	2.8
区县9	3.6	2.7
区县10	2.3	2.7
区县11	1.8	1.5
区县12	2.0	2.6
区县13	3.1	2.7
区县14	2.0	3.3
区县15	3.1	3.0
区县16	2.2	3.5
区县17	2.6	2.1
区县18	2.2	3.3
区县19	2.6	2.8
区县20	2.2	2.5
区县21	2.5	2.8

1	马永源，马力 . 电信规划方法. 北京：北京邮电大学出版社， 2001
2	郭亚军，董慧娟，王杨 . 区域发展潜力的评价方法及其应用. 东北大学学报（社会科学版）， 2002，4（3）：172～174
3	朗宏文 . 企业发展潜力评价. 统计与决策， 2006（20)
4	马长芳 . 决策理论与方法. 北京：科学出版社， 2003

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